国内手机业面临“缺芯”困境
Tang Qi, a former phone dealer in Huaqiangbei, one of China’s largest smartphone grey markets in Shenzhen, has witnessed the ups and downs of the handset industry. But one thing is certain: business has always hinged on semiconductor chips.深圳华强北是全球最大的智能手机灰色市场之一，前手机经销商唐奇见证了该行业的起起落落。但有一件事是肯定的：业务好坏始终取决于半导体芯片。
Now, with the golden years of globalisation seemingly in the rear view, the country’s mobile phone industry is caught in the middle of a tech war that has seen the US and its allies ban exports of semiconductors used to power advanced smartphones, leaving the outlook far from certain.
当前，全球化的黄金岁月似乎已悄然逝去，美国及其盟友禁止出口先进的智能手机芯片，中国手机行业深受影响，未来蒙上了一层阴影。
From the turn of the century well into the 2010s, Huaqiangbei – an electronics district of 1.45 sq km (0.56 square miles) in the heart of Shenzhen – was the city’s most prosperous area. The latest mobile phones – genuine, smuggled or knock-off – could usually be found there, before being shipped all over the world.
从世纪之交到2010年代，位于深圳市中心、面积1.45 平方公里的华强北是这座城市最繁华的地区。无论是正品、水货还是山寨机，在这里都可以找到，然后再运往世界各地。
Its fate, however, shows what can happen when access to high-end semiconductor chips becomes more difficult and domestic innovation falters.
然而，华强北的兴衰表明，当获得高端芯片日益困难且国内创新步履蹒跚时会发生什么。
“Before 2004, there were no counterfeit phones on the market,” Tang said. “Counterfeiting and knock-offs started to flourish in 2005 when MediaTek offered chips integrated with software, which made counterfeit mobile production easy.”
唐说，“在 2004 年之前，市场上没有山寨机。2005 年，当联发科开始提供软件集成芯片时，山寨机开始盛行。”
MediaTek, a Taiwan-based semiconductor design company, opened its technology to mainland China in 2003 amid warmer ties across the Taiwan Strait. In 2007, it joined the Google-led Open Handset Alliance with more than 80 global hardware manufacturers, software developers and telecoms operators to develop the Android system.
台湾半导体设计公司联发科2003年在两岸关系升温之际向大陆开放技术，2007年加入谷歌主导的开放手机联盟，联合全球80多家硬件制造商、软件开发商和电信运营商共同开发安卓系统。
Access to the chip technology and operating system created opportunities for Chinese manufacturers, many of whom already provided components to big name foreign brands like Motorola and Nokia under original equipment manufacturer (OEM) agreements, to make their own phones. But the technology also led to a flourishing counterfeit market.
获得芯片技术和操作系统为中国制造商创造了机会，其中许多制造商已经根据原始设备制造商协议向摩托罗拉和诺基亚等知名外国品牌供货。但这也导致了繁荣的山寨市场。
According to Tang, tiny companies in Guangdong would buy a MediaTek chip loaded with software, source other components, and ask a factory to assemble them.
广东的小公司会购买装有软件的联发科芯片，并采购其他组件，请工厂组装。
“More than 80 per cent of the counterfeit mobile phones used MediaTek chips,” he said. “The only other things needed are a battery and a cover to make a phone labelled and to look like a Samsung or a Sony.”
唐说，“超过80%的山寨品使用联发科芯片。只需换上电池和外壳，让它看起来像三星或索尼。”
During the heydays of his business, Tang had 20 Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines, producing all kinds of covers day and night for counterfeiting and knock-offs.
生意最好的时候，唐拥有20台数控机床，夜以继日地生产各种手机外壳。
Once home to tens of thousands of electronics companies, Huaqiangbei saw annual turnover top 120 billion yuan (US$17.4 billion) at its peak, between 2009 and 2011, the Shenzhen Economic Daily reported.
2009-2011年，华强北坐拥数万家电子公司，年营业额达到1200亿元人民币。
In May 2010, monthly rental for a ground-floor shop in Huaqiangbei could cost more than 3,000 yuan per square metre – at a time when the city’s top luxury malls could only charge a few hundred yuan per square metre.
2010年5月，华强北底层商铺月租金高达每平方米3000元。相比之下，当时深圳顶级购物中心租金只有几百元。
However, the counterfeit mobile phone business began declining in 2012 because MediaTek’s chips could not match the technical prowess of the latest generation of smartphones, like Apple’s iPhone and Samsung’s Galaxy.
然而，山寨业务在2012年开始下滑，因为联发科芯片无法匹配苹果iPhone和三星Galaxy等最新一代智能手机。
“The chip, the core component of the latest generation of smartphones, became hard to copy, the copycat businesses just died away, as they could no longer replicate the high-end technology and sell it cheaply,” he said.
“芯片是最新一代智能手机的核心部件，难以仿制。山寨企业无法再复制高端技术并以低价出售，只能走向消亡。”
The global smartphone market has in recent years been marked by periods of turbulence, most notably due to a shortage of chips, which China must import to power its high-end handsets. There are also concerns that domestic component suppliers could lose orders with multinationals, who are looking to diversify away from China amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington.
近年来，全球智能手机市场经历了一段时期的动荡，最直接的原因是芯片短缺，而中国必须进口芯片制造高端手机。在北京和华盛顿地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，跨国公司正寻求将业务迁出中国，外界担心国内零部件供应商可能会失去跨国公司的订单。
Chips have emerged as a key battleground in the US-China tech war, because they power everything from electric vehicles to space shuttles. The US is choking China’s access to both semiconductor chips and the equipment producing them, allying with the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to restrict exports to the mainland.
芯片已成为美中科技战的关键战场，电动汽车、航天飞机等关键行业都离不开芯片。美国正在阻止中国获取半导体芯片及生产设备，与荷兰、日本、韩国和台湾结盟以限制对大陆的出口。
Last year, Apple revealed its intention to move parts of its manufacturing process out of China and into emerging markets such as India and Vietnam after experiencing stringent Covid-19 curbs in mainland China.
去年，苹果公司透露，在经历了严格的疫情限制措施后，打算将部分生产线转移到印度和越南等新兴市场。
Apple’s major contractor, Taiwan-based Foxconn, has recently announced plans to create a major new factory in Vietnam after investing US$500 million in its Indian subsidiary last year. Foxconn’s Zhengzhou factory in the central province of Henan is the world’s largest iPhone assembly site, hiring as many as 300,000 employees and accounting for 50 to 60 per cent of Foxconn’s global iPhone assembly capacity.
苹果公司的主要承包商、总部位于台湾的富士康，去年向其印度子公司投资5亿美元，最近又宣布计划在越南新建一家大型工厂。富士康位于河南省的郑州工厂是全球最大的iPhone组装基地，拥有30万名员工，占富士康全球 iPhone组装产能的50%-60%。
Nevertheless, Tang remains optimistic.“The shifting of the industrial chain overseas has not been as easy as imagined, and most of the deep-processed raw materials are re-exported from China,” Tang said.
尽管如此，唐依旧保持乐观。“产业链向海外转移并没有想象中那么容易，大部分深加工原材料都是从中国转口。”
“If the yield rate of high-end mobile phones produced in India and Vietnam is now about 50 or 60 per cent, it has to be increased by 200 per cent to approach the current yield rate of Chinese factories. This is a long process, which is why Apple is currently unable to leave China for the production of its latest iPhone series.”
“现在印度和越南生产的高端手机良品率在50%、60%左右，要接近中国工厂目前的良品率，还得提高200%。这是一个漫长的过程，也是苹果目前无法离开中国生产最新iPhone的原因。”
Chinese companies with operations in India will still play a key role in Apple’s plan to make some iPhones in the country, The New York Times reported in September last year. In Chennai, India, subsidiaries of Chinese companies will supply chargers and other components for iPhones, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the situation.
《纽约时报》去年9月报道，在印度开展业务的中国公司仍将在苹果转移iPhone生产线的计划中发挥关键作用。该报援引知情人士的话报道称，在印度金奈，中国企业的子公司将为iPhone供应充电器等零部件。
Zeng Liaoyuan, an associate professor of information and communication engineering at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China in Chengdu, said difficulties for Chinese manufacturers will soon arrive and last for at least two decades before China can successfully madek advanced chips on its own.
电子科技大学信息与通信工程专业曾副教授表示，中国制造商的困难很快就会到来，而且至少会持续二十年，中国才能自主制造先进芯片。
“There have been talks about changing the arena of competition . In the manufacturing area, however, there’s no sector which can bypass chips,” Zeng said.“Crucial to the colossal telecoms industries and digital economy, China cannot abandon the smartphone sector. Only by motivating scientists, researchers and engineers to make innovations, will China be able to grasp chip-making technologies.”
“[学术界]一直在讨论改变[与美国]的竞争领域。然而，在制造领域，没有一个行业可以绕过芯片。芯片对于庞大的电信行业和数字经济至关重要。中国不能放弃智能手机行业，只有激励科学家、研究人员和工程师进行创新，才能掌握芯片制造技术。”
Chinese companies will face an “innovate or die” situation amid fierce competition in 5G generation, a spokesman from one Chinese firm under US sanctions told the Post.
一家受美国制裁的中国公司表示，在5G时代的激烈竞争中，中国公司将面临“要么创新，要么消亡”的局面。
John Kou, a veteran electronic engineer in his early 50s in Shenzhen, said China’s whole electronics sector would suffer if foreign high-end smartphone makers continue to diversify.
50岁出头的深圳资深电子工程师 John Kou 表示，如果外国高端手机制造商继续实施供应链多元化战略，中国整个电子行业都会受到影响。
“Brands like Apple have actually driven the upgrading of China’s electronics industry chain over the years,” he said. “They set high process requirements, whether it is electronic components or screen glass. To secure their orders, Chinese factories are incentivised to invest into upgrading their production lines and training the workforce. If the foreign brands relocate abroad, China’s domestic demand alone is not enough to generate support for R&D and production of the next generation of high-end electronic products.”
“多年来，像苹果这样的品牌实际上带动了中国电子产业链的升级。他们对工艺提出了很高的要求，无论是电子元件还是屏幕玻璃。为了保住订单，中国工厂不得不投资升级生产线、培训劳动力。如果跨国品牌搬迁到国外，单靠中国内需不足以支撑下一代高端电子产品的研发与生产。”
Liu Kaiming, head of the Institute of Contemporary Observation in Guangdong, attributed China’s rise as the world’s smartphone manufacturing hub to its complete supply chain, the existence of a large number of skilled workers and a huge domestic market.
广东当代社会观察研究所所长刘开明表示，中国之所以能崛起为世界智能手机制造中心，原因在于其完整的供应链、大量熟练工人和巨大的国内市场。
“The maturity of the supply chain is the biggest advantage of Chinese mobile phone manufacturing, and leaving China to reset the supply chain is actually a huge cost increase for brands,” said Liu, whose institute has been supervising supply chains in hundreds of OEM companies in China for two decades.
“供应链的成熟度是中国手机制造业的最大优势，将供应链迁出中国将导致成本大幅上升。”
However, geopolitical changes are affecting the economic dynamics. As mobile phones are crucial to the ecology of China’s electronics industry, China should try to minimise political differences and maintain friendly trade relations with most countries, Liu said.
然而，地缘政治变化正在影响经济动态。刘说，由于手机对我国电子产业生态至关重要，应尽量减少政治分歧，与大多数国家保持友好贸易关系。
“Southeast Asia is emerging as a new global manufacturing centre. China should use the established economic relationship with Southeast Asian countries to jointly build a supply chain with complementary advantages, synergistic efficiency, and mutual benefits,” he said.
“东南亚正在成为新的全球制造中心。中国应利用与东南亚国家已建立的经济关系，共同打造优势互补、效率协同、互利共赢的供应链。”
As of today, 90 per cent of Apple’s latest iPhones shipments are still made in China, Liu said, adding whether it is India or Vietnam, there is still no capacity for mass production of new iPhones elsewhere.
到目前为止，90%的最新款iPhone仍在中国制造。无论是印度还是越南，依旧没有形成大规模生产能力。
But that could all change in three years’ time, with maybe 30 per cent of such production shifted from China, he said.
然而，三年后情况可能发生剧变，或有高达30%的产能离开中国。
----------------------------- 为啥是三年后?良品率上来了? 西方降低工业链上对中国的依赖，中国则降低在市场和关键设备上对西方的依赖。鹿死谁手，走着瞧吧。 把路走窄了是关键原因。 outlookgenuine, smuggled and knock offhigh-end semiconductorinnovation falter 发ocounterfeit knock offhandset [抱抱][抱抱] 非常好！ 当年红军长征时也不想爬雪山过草地，但好走的路上都埋着敌人的兵。时过境迁，霉帝已不想看着中国继续做大，先手采取了围堵政策，中国只好被动的出应手。 红军不会相信，“时过境迁”后，还有人在玩{股票}、{房地产}这等资产阶级聚敛财富的把戏！我们未能走出一条全新之路，这才是症结所在！难道不是吗[好奇][生气]
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